Week 4

Trend, Drivers and Signals

Trends: Are effective and have high and long term popularity. Social Construct are recurring phenomenons. Create high demands

Trends are conceptualised ideas have the potential to continuing influencing people for a long time.

Fads on the other hand have short term existence and emerge quickly and fade quickly.

Understand the elements being analysed

Researchers on design futures. Need to comprehend the factors and environment to evaluate and forecast

Need evidence to support trend.  Look back at history for insights.

Assess the interrelationship between trends

Do the different trend conflict or support one another? Do a smart analysis on which one is important

Forecast the upcoming direction of issues

Use the STEEP analysis to look beyond what the information gathered. Identify the causes and symptoms of the trends to figure out the driving force

Derive Implications

What would happen if this forecast does happen? It gives you the opportunity to make a conclusion on matters and to ready yourself for the change. Give a recommendation of what you should do next.

Signal is a specific example, Driver is the bigger force behind the example.

Signals:

evidence of the future found today.How the world is changing, provide hints of the future direction.Specific products, politicies, events, experienceStrong signals generate strong forecast

Drivers:

Broad long term trends that are likely to have a significant impact on the futureSTEEP can be used to gather and categorise driversDrivers operate across multiple industries and practises, impact felt in different contexts

The Future Cone

Horizon Scanning

A foresight method used for discovering early signs of potential changes. It is a systematic process that enable futurist to spot trends before they emerge into the main stream, It also identify key action points to proactively shape desirable or preferable futures.

1.     Define TrendsGo through the different yearsFormulate a research question

2.     Broaden the ViewSubdivide the circle to reflect the STEEP analysis

3.     Scan the HorizonSearch for signal related to each of the sectors

4.     Assess & PrioritiseSee which is more significant trend

5.     Answer your research questionsDefine which are the most significant

6.     Formulate your action StepsAvoid being surprised by the change, use it to your benefits

Prioritize your actions

Create a foresight radar Horizon Scan with an action plan based on your topic